Game Week! One of the most beautiful phrases ever uttered. Of course "Game" next to any other word, is usually a guarantee of a great phrase, unless the other word is "cancelled". But I digress. It's time to celebrate, as this week, finally, football doth return anew.
The New Season Smell
One of the best parts of the start of the season, is the hope and optimism for all teams is at it's highest. Typically nobodies dreams and expectations for the season have crumbled under cruel reality that is football. Utah's quarterback hasn't succumbed to yet another shoulder surgery. BYU playing in anything more important than the Poinsettia Bowl is still a possibility.
Starting this week, however, we will begin to find out the truth about these teams. But before we find out about reality, let's dwell in the realm of conjecture, and prediction for just a little longer.
A New Addition To RB&P
This season, I am going to do something I've been wanting to do for a couple years.
The Red, Blue And Pigskin Podcast. The hope is to do 3 or 4 a year, and it will cover topics missed by the article, or just expand upon them. This season, the in depth season preview is in Podcast #1. Please go take a listen, and let me know your opinions, share your thoughts, and give me ideas. Also I would like some reader interaction for the Podcast. Podcast #2 will be for the Holy War game, and will probably be recorded the Friday before Utah State game.
Three Keys
While the full season preview may be in the Podcast, I wanted to touch on three keys points for Utah and BYU. These are the thoughts that will make or break either teams season in 2012.
QB - Both teams come into the season with QB's that are a bit of an enigma. For Utah, if he could stay healthy, Jordan Wynn would easily hold the title of the Best QB in the state. However, injury concerns have some wondering if he's even the best choice on his own team. Wynn has supposedly bulked up properly, and his new frame should be able to withstand the beating of a season. If Wynn can stay healthy, Utah can have a very successful season. If not, Utah is in a better position than they were last year, but it will still be a rough road. I'll be honest, I'm a Jordan Wynn fan, and think he'll make it through the entire year. In fact, all my predictions later are based on him staying healthy.
Down South meanwhile, the Cougars had addition by subtraction with the transfer of Diva Jake Heaps. There is the old saying that the most popular guy on any football team is the Backup QB, and last year Riley Nelson was definitely the popular guy. But what happens when that Backup, now becomes the starter? Riley Nelson is a tough, hard nosed, spirited football player. He plays with fire, energy, and determination. He's obviously a great team leader. This was noticeable in the way the Cougar players rallied around him. Where he has some questions, though, is his QB ability. Nelson is not a good QB. He's a hard nosed, power running back, who is playing the QB position. The key for the Cougars will be to see if Nelson can keep himself reigned in, and stay the QB, instead of reverting to RB.
RB - From a RB playing QB in the first point, to the actual RB's in the second point. The Utes have John White IV returning after the greatest single rushing season in program history. However, the Utes really hope they don't have to put such a workload on the Wolfman. This year they are looking at some depth to assist them with Juco Transfer Kelvin York.
For the Cougars, they must remember they have a Running game. How deep of a running game, remains to be seen after the coaching staff ran off Josh Quezada in the offseason. Michael Alisa, who took off about the midway point of the season last year, returns. The key for the Cougars, and Offensive Coordinator Brandon Doman, is to remember he's actually there.
Defense - While QB's and RB's may be the glory position, It's the defense that both teams will need to rely on. For Utah, they should return an even better team than last years, Pac-12 leading defense. Led by Star Lotulelei up front. In the backfield they are short handed for the first three weeks because Safety Brian Blechen is an absolute moronic idiot, who failed his second drug test, and will be suspended for the first three games. However, Utah is actually pretty deep in the secondary. For them the big question, is the LB's. After seeing all three of their starters from 2011 graduate, Utah is left trying to find three new starters. And considering last year's trio was serviceable, but not up to Pac-12 standards, if Utah's defense is going to live up to expectations, the guys in the middle must step up.
For BYU, the defensive question is depth. The Cougars have some stud defenders, with players like Eathyn Manumaleuna, Preston Hadley, and the only player who could think of competing with Star Lotulelei for best defensive player in the state, Kyle Van Oy. What the cougars don't have, is a lot of depth. Romney Fuga returns, but he was never quite right last year in his first year back from a gruesome, cheap shot caused injury. Uona Kaveinga has yet to fulfill the hope on the other side of Van Oy, that he brought with him in his transfer from USC. In the secondary, Bronco has said this is his most athletic secondary since he's been there. He says that every year, and it is a BYU secondary, so that bar isn't very high, but at least their db's are all taller than 5'6".
With Apologies To The Bengals
Last year, I made no effort to hide my disgust of the Cougars scheduling Idaho State. In fact, this was my exact statement as I compared the game to prostitution:
My thoughts on BYU's schedule are well known, and this week's game is the worst of the bunch. I hate it when Div 1-A teams play teams from Division 1-AA teams. Unfortunately it happens way too often, including the Utes earlier this year. Worse than playing a 1-AA team though, is playing a 1-AA that had won only a single game for the past three years. If you add there two wins from this season, the Bengals have won a total of 10 games since 2006, half of which came against Division II teams. This is a completely indefensible scheduling choice. The Cougars have paid Idaho State to come into their house, lay down, and let the Cougars have their way against them. This game is Football scheduling prostitution at it's absolute worst. BYU should actually pay any fan who shows up to the game, for sitting through the atrocity. There is zero chance BYU loses this game. Scratch that, there is less than zero chance. Even if somehow their bus gets delayed and Idaho State lines up against no one, BYU would still win this game. This isn't meant to be another dig at BYU's schedule this year. Even if BYU had 11 other top 15 teams on the schedule, I would still hate this game. Even if Utah had scheduled this terrible team, the football lover in me would still be offended.
Well my apologies to the Cougars, and the Bengals both, because as terrible as that was last year, The Utes decision to schedule the Northern Colorado Bears this year, a team that lost to Idaho State last year by 30 points, and actually did go winless on the season, is ten times worse. As a Utah fan, and a football lover, I am offended. This isn't a tune up game. Northern Colorado isn't good enough for this to be a tune up game. All that can happen in this game, is an injury. Nothing good can come from this game. They can't take anything they see on film and apply it to future games, because the level of competition is so bad. The only breakdown I am willing to offer for this game, is Utah will win. They better not sustain a major injury, and if any starters are playing in the 2nd half, Utah has screwed up royally.
The Pirate Returns
BYU meanwhile actually plays something resembling a team, as they host the Washington State Cougars. Washington State has been trying to rebuild ever since bottoming out in 2009 with a one win season. The first rebuilding job brought them to the brink of mediocrity with a 5 win season in 2011. To help them take the next step, the Cougars brought in one of the biggest personalities in College Football in Mike Leach.
Leach is known for many things in the College Football world. He's the QB who got screwed out of his previous job with Texas Tech, because Craig James' son was a sissy whose daddy happened to work for ESPN. Leach is also known for his strong infatuation with Pirates. From a coaching standpoint Leach also happened to take a historical also ran from Lubbock Texas to new heights with a high powered, fast paced, offense, coming just 1 win away from the National Championship Game in 2008 with Texas Tech.
Leach brings his pirate loving ways back to coaching sidelines in Pullman, Washington. For his first game he returns to his alma mater. A place where he learned about high scoring offenses with LaVell Edwards. And while his offensive style will give BYU's defense a test, there just hasn't been enough time for Leach to get enough of his system, and his talent into the program.
Another thing about Leach, he's a tad overrated. I like Leach, after all what's not to like about a guy who loves pirates, and isn't willing to cut a kid a break, just because his father works for ESPN, and was partially responsible for the only death penalty in NCAA history. Take that away though, and his results are mediocre. Sure he's seen extreme highs in 2008, but take that season away, and his years were always filled with head scratching losses that shouldn't have happened.
I think overall he'll be good for Washington State, but I don't think he'll ever accomplish what he accomplished at Texas Tech. And as for week one, there is no reason that this should be a close game. High scoring offense or not, Washington State, just isn't a good team yet. BYU should be. They should be able to take control of this game on the ground early, and while they'll give up some yards, and probably some points, this game should never be in doubt in the second half.
The Rest Of The Year
So now that both teams should be starting the year 1-0, how will the rest of 2012 play out? This was touched on during the podcast, but I wanted to expand on it just a bit. I even have some conference predictions (for Utah), and there might be a BCS Championship prediction at the end.
Week 2
Friday September 7 - The Utes make what could most likely be their last ever trip to Logan after pulling a major Big Brother move on the Aggies in the off season. The Aggies will still be trying to find their way with life after Robert Turbin and Bobby Wagner. Kerwin Williams will want to show that there were multiple running backs in the backfield.
Odds Utah Wins: 80%,
Will They Win?: Yes
Saturday September 8 - I said last year, if you are going to bother with a 1-AA team, at least make it an in state team. The Cougars did just that and play the Weber State Wildcats, who are in a state worse than disarray. This is a no contest game.
Odds BYU Wins: 100%,
Will They Win?: Yes, and be resting by half time.
Week 3
Saturday September 15 - The Holy War is going on hiatus in 2014 and 2015, but before it does, there will be one last game in each stadium. Utah doesn't want to lose in Rice-Eccles before the break. BYU wants nothing more than to pay Utah back for last year's 54-10 beat down, by winning the last game pre-hiatus in Rice-Eccles. BYU fans think last year would have been different with Riley Nelson, but truth is Utah is still the better team.
Odds Either Team Wins: 50%,
So Who Does? Go Utes!.
X-Factor This game doesn't kick off till 8:15 p.m. That means there's going to be a lot of pre-game tailgaiting, which also means, that unfortunately, many in the crowd will live up to some negative Ute stereotypes. Max Hall will be proud.
Week 4
Thursday September 20 - You know what the worst part of any drive to anywhere in the Northwest is? It's the 4 hours or so you are stuck in Idaho. The Cougars must make that trip as they face the Boise State Broncos on the smurf turf. There are many who think that Boise State is in for a down year now that Kellen Moore has graduated. Apparently they don't remember that Boise State has been good for more than 6 years. It's a system down there, and while I don't think they'll reach the heights they reached with Moore, it's still going to be a really good team.
Odds BYU Wins: 35%,
Do They? Not likely. Production on the Countdown to Poinsettia Bowl clock at LaVell Edwards should finish that weekend.
Saturday September 22 - The Utes begin conference play, and also the unofficial Jordan Wynn revenge tour. Last year in Jon Hays first start, the Sun Devils took care of some costly mistakes to secure a big victory. This year though, it's a different Sun Devil team, as Dennis Erickson is gone and Todd Graham is in charge. Last year the Todd Graham coached Pitt Panthers, and the Utes played an extremely ugly, boring terrible game. Let's hope this game is more enjoyable to watch.
Odds Utah Wins: 65%,
Do They? Yep, and countdown to USC begins.
Week 5
Friday September 29 - Norm Chow has no love for the school he coached at for almost 30 years, and would love nothing more than to win in LaVell Edwards during his first trip as a Head Coach. Unfortunately for him Hawaii just isn't any good.
Odds BYU Wins: 75%,
They Do Don't They? Of Course
Week 6
Thursday October 4 - USC will bring their #1 ranked team into Rice-Eccles Stadium for a Thursday night showdown. If Utah is undefeated, this could very well be the biggest college football game ever played in the state of Utah. Last year's matchup saw Utah come within a blocked field goal of overtime. This year though the Trojans are post season eligible, and have their sites set on a Championship.
Odds Utah Wins: 35%,
Any Hope? I'll admit it, this is a homer call, but USC traditionally stumbles somewhere along the way, and I still don't think Kiffin is a good coach, I'm calling the shocking upset right now.
Friday October 5 - With the nation still abuzz from last nights upset 30 miles further north, the Cougars welcome in the Aggies for the annual conference weekend matchup. Last year, the Aggies dominated the game's first three quarters, bringing to an end the Jake Heaps era in Provo, before Riley Nelson came in and led the Cougars to the victory with 11 seconds left. Can the Aggies continue the climb they started two years ago, or do they drop back down to earth?
Odds BYU Wins: 60%,
Will they? This is a tough one, BYU is the better team, but the Aggies really, dislike BYU, I think a little vengeance might be in order.
Week 7
Saturday October 13 - For the first time all season, BYU and Utah play on the same day, when they aren't playing each other. Utah, high off their upset a week prior must refocus early as they travel to LA to play the Bruins. UCLA cast off Slick Rick, and hired Jim Mora Jr. Mora has never been a college head coach, but did have moderate success in the NFL.
Odds Utah Wins: 65%,
Do They Avoid A Post USC Let Down? Yes, but it's sloppier, and closer than they'd like.
BYU meanwhile begins the second half of their season at a mediocre 3-3. They start with what could be a trap game at home against Oregon State, with two big road games coming up the next couple weeks. The Beavers had a rough 2011, and are looking for a bounce back season.
Odds BYU Wins: 75%,
Akbar Alert? Not really, BYU should be okay here.
Week 8
Saturday October 20 - A week after playing the Cougars, the Beavers host the Utes. The Beavers hope to capture some of the magic they had in 2008 when they ruined the Trojans undefeated season. Unfortunately the Rogers brothers have no more eligibility for the Beavers.
Odds Utah Wins: 80%,
Could they really be 7-0? Yes, yes they can.
When BYU went independence they signed a 6 game contract with Notre Dame. Game 1 is this week. Surprisingly enough the Golden Domers actually began the season without a lot of hype. For them this game is sandwiched between a rivalry game with Stanford, and a matchup with Preseason #4 Oklahoma, meaning Admiral Ackbar could be seen in South Bend this week.
Odds BYU Wins: 40%,
Do They? They give it a good try, but alas come up short,
Week 9
Saturday October 27 - Last year's game against California was the ugliest, and worst performance of the season. It ranks with 2007 UNLV, and 2010 TCU as one of the worst losses in the Kyle Whittingham era. The Utes were never in that game, and were just absolutely embarrassed. Cal comes to Rice-Eccles looking to repeat the feat, especially considering their long time head coach may be sitting on a bit of a warm seat.
Odds Utah Wins: 55%,
Revenge? It'll be close, but yes, the Utes powered by their Blackout Helmets pull it off.
BYU will be on the road for the 2nd straight week against Utah's 2011 Sun Bowl opponent. Georgia Tech runs a very run heavy Triple Option format. BYU is no stranger to the triple option from their days playing Air Force, but this will be the first time they've seen it since going independent. Tech's running game, will give BYU's depth defensively a real test.
Odds BYU Wins: 40%,
Will They? No, BYU will lose, badly, and this will mark the low point of the season, fortunately for BYU they can wrap up their WAC Conference Championship the rest of the season.
Week 10
Saturday November 3 - Mike Leach comes to the state of Utah for the 2nd time this year. His team will be a bit more used to his system, and by then should be cranking out enough yards to give even good defenses a scare. Defensively the Cougars will still have nothing.
Odds Utah Wins: 70%,
Will They? Yes, but there's going to be a lot of yards and possibly points given up.
Week 11
Saturday November 10 - Washington effectively ruined Utah's season last year, when they caused Jordan Wynn's injury. Washington would love to ruin an even better 2012 season for Utah. If Washington can get their defensive woes together, they may be in the midst of quite a season themselves.
Odds Utah Wins: 45%,
And The Result? Sadly the run ends. Which stinks, because I really hate Steve Sarkisian, and not just because he's a former Cougar.
My
podcast partner called this as a stunning upset for Idaho, but in reality Idaho still stinks. The Cougars will be three wins away from being the unofficial last WAC Champion ever, despite not playing in that conference. What better way to right the ship than from scrubs. My guess is we also see a bit of the BYU Future at QB during this game.
Odds BYU Wins: 95%,
Need You Ask? BYU Closes out it's home season with a Victory
Week 12
Saturday November 17 - Utah's perfect season may be over, but they are still in the hunt for the Pac-12 South. This week they face another new head coach in Rich Rodriguez at Arizona. Rich Rod may have flamed out in Michigan, but his style fits Arizona better, and is my pick to be the most successful of the 4 new head coaches in the Pac-12 this year.
Odds Utah Wins: 75%,
Utes Rebound? Indeed.
BYU meanwhile will head to sunny California to play San Jose State. SJSU actually played BYU tougher than they had any right to last year, and this is the one of the three finales for BYU that could see them upset.
Odds BYU Wins: 90%,
Will they be upset? Maybe upset they don't win by more.
Week 13
Friday November 23 - Last year the Friday after Thanksgiving was indeed Black Friday, as the Colorado Buffaloes got their first victory outside the state of Colorado in 4 years, ruining a chance for the Utes to play in the Pac-12 Championship game. All that being said, this still isn't close to a rivalry, but Utes will want revenge.
Odds Utah Wins: 80%,
Buffalo Burgers anyone? Absolutely, forget the Turkey Day leftovers.
BYU Will finish off their regular season with yet another game that no one will care about, or want to discuss. New Mexico State is bad, but at least this is the end of the WAC Contract for BYU, as they move up to C-USA fillers in the future.
Odds BYU Wins: 95%,
End With A Bang? A blowout victory as they prep for the Poinsettia.
Season Wrap-Up
BYU finishes 7-5, Utah has a great run to 11-1.
What about Utah's conference mates. I think it's going to be a bit of a surprise year. USC is an early Championship game pick, but what they are really lacking is depth. Thanks to appeals, 2012 was the first year they had to suffer through scholarship sanctions. They have two more years of that to. Scholarship sanctions take 3-4 years to show themselves at the top of the depth chart, but the more immediate impact come in depth. SC can't afford many injuries.
In the North, Oregon will still be a power, but I think they will come into the pack. Despite beating Washington again in their rivalry game, I think they finish behind the Huskies in the Northern race.
Four teams have new coaches, three of them will be okay in year one, with Todd Graham's Sun Devils being the only ones to really stink it up. Leach and Mora get the Cougars, and Bruins to that bowl eligible 6-6 mark, as does Rich Rod in Arizona.
Nationally Everyone talks about the SEC's 6 consecutive Championship game victories. I prefer to think about the fact they lost the last championship game also, and make it two in a row as Wisconsin upsets Georgia.
Enjoy The Season
As always all predictions guaranteed or they're wrong.
Enjoy the season, enjoy the podcast, and please leave comments.