the black cat on :
Great read...keep 'em coming
Monday, August 23. 2010Red, Blue And Pigskin
12 Years ago, Utah and BYU were tired of the over-bloated 16 team Western Athletic Conference. The two schools were instrumental in getting New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force, UNLV, San Diego State, and Colorado State to join them as they formed a new 8 team Mountain West Conference. The WAC was left with UTEP, Hawaii, Fresno State, TCU, Rice, SMU, Tulsa, and San Jose State. TCU hadn't yet hired Gary Patterson to start their transition to a BCS Threat. The WAC was severely depleted, and on the verge of irrelevency. By 2005 the WAC had seen Rice, Tulsa, SMU, and TCU also leave it's conference. Thanks mainly to the emergence of Boise State, the WAC was able to recover the destruction left behind when Utah and BYU left.
12 years later, BYU may very well have started the events that will finish the job. How the West Was Undone
So how is it that BYU went back to terrorize it's foe from 12 years ago? Well it all goes back to the earlier expansion movement this summer. After Utah was invited to join the Pac-10. BYU knowing that it's main rival, and a team it's long considered it's younger brother, was leaving for bigger and better things. Even with the invitation of Boise State to the conference, it was clear that the MWC was not going to become an Automatic Qualifying school. BYU started looking out for other options. They started conversations with the Big 12, but the Big 12 probably won't expand for a couple years. At least not till after it appeals, and fails, to the NCAA to get a conference championship game with only 10 teams. Pac-10 has already said no to BYU. On Tuesday night, rumors started slipping out that BYU was going to go Independent starting with the 2011 season. BYU would take all of it's non Football sports and join the WAC, while remaining independent for football. It started with a tweet on tuesday from @CSUAthletics saying that BYU was leaving. CSU later denied the tweet saying that their account had been hacked, but the wheels were already in motion. As sports outlets started to pick up and run with the story on Wednesday morning, Andy Katz of ESPN first reported that all BYU was waiting for was a Notre Dame like deal with the BCS for access. Notre Dame is a guaranteed BCS Participant if it finishes in the top 8 of the BCS Rankings. Later Katz reported that independence could happen regardless even without a BCS deal, and that the only thing keeping it from happening would be BYU changing their minds. By Wednesday afternoon both the Salt Lake Tribune and the Deseret News were calling it a done deal. At the same time news started to filter out that BYU had reached an agreement in secrecy to join the WAC in all non football sports, and that as part of their independent scheduling, they would play a minimum of 4, and up to 6 WAC teams per year. To help solidify the agreement with BYU the 8 remaining WAC Schools agreed to a 5 million dollar penalty should any team leave. Wednesday night looked as though BYU was leaving the MWC. This was a dire situation for the MWC. If BYU were to go Independent, it would mean the MWC had lost 2 of it's biggest schools. Chances are Boise State would then return back to the WAC, and TCU would also look to leave. The MWC was flatlining, and a priest had been called in for the Last Rites. Craig Thompson, who has sat on his hands for years, instead of improving the conference, decided that with his conference dying it was time to throw one last Hail Mary. On Thursday morning, the pass was completed, as news came out that Fresno State, and Nevada were going to leave the WAC and join the MWC conference. Word also started to come out Thursday, that Utah State was the first school offered to join the MWC, but believing it had an agreement with the other 7 WAC teams and BYU, it declined, believing it was showing loyalty to an even stronger WAC, and that MWC was in danger. Instead, the WAC that Utah State, Commissioner Karl Benson, and BYU went to bed dreaming on of Wednesday, was in shambles. Fresno State, and Nevada joining the MWC meant that it's top 3 Football schools were now going to be gone. The Conference was then down to 6 members, and it's deal with BYU was all but gone. Commissioner Karl Benson called the actions of Fresno and Nevada selfish. So in a matter of 24 hours, the WAC went from a new high, with an agreement with BYU, to now being on the brink of extinction. NCAA rules state a conference needs 8 members. The MWC went from flatlining to being 1 team short of a conference title game. And BYU is still out there trying to decide whether to go independent or not. The 9 Team conference they left, is now an 11 team conference. It's still locked into a terrible TV contract, which now needs to be spread out over two more teams. It's still stuck into terrible bowl agreements, and it still has no hope of becoming an Automatic Qualifying Conference. MWC Predictions/Preview Continued More on the BYU situation later, but first a continuation of my Predictions/Previews for the MWC in 2010. Last week I did spots 9 through 4. They went: 9 - New Mexico 8 - UNLV 7 - CSU 6 - Wyoming 5 - SDSU 4 - Air Force. And now Coming In third is.... 3. Brigham Young Cougars 2010 is a year of change for the Cougars. The senior leadership of 2009 has made way for a young team. A team that Coach Bronco Mendenhall has hinted could travel 50 Freshmen and Sophomores to their first road game. At the center of the change is the QB Position. Gone is Max Hall. Instead true freshman and very highly recruited "Saint" Jake Heaps is battling it out with Utah State transfer Junior Riley Nelson. Heaps is more a traditional BYU quarterback, while Nelson is more of a scrambler who doesn't really have the accuracy of a traditional BYU QB. At stake for BYU isn't just who will start at the QB position. Heaps was heavily responsible for an excellent recruiting class, a class that could very well be the best class ever for BYU. If Nelson starts ahead of Heaps, it could be a worrisome sign. Of course Coach Mendenhall will not announce, nor should he, who will win the QB job, until the first offensive snap against Washington. Another big change was the Running back position. All-Time leading rusher Harvey Unga, who withdrew from the school amid a possible Honor Code violation, is now on the Chicago Bears Injured Reserve list. Instead BYU will go with some younger guys at the Running Back position, with it looking like J.J. DeLuigi the current favorite to be the starter. The lack of a seasoned running back, is one thing that could help Mendenhall decide on Nelson. Also gone are 2009 Sr. TE's Dennis Pitta, who is now in the NFL, and Andrew George, who is still running after catching the game winning pass in last year's Holy War. Defensively, the line and the LB's saw some major changes as all 3 starting Linebackers, and DE Star Jan Jorgensen were seniors in 2009. The Utes were in a similar position last year having major losses defensively and at the QB position, They ended up with a 10 win season. While BYU must replace more offensively, you can bet that they still don't want to be shown up in the Reloading department. Worst Case - Neither Nelson or Heaps really emerge at the QB position throughout the year. The Offense struggles swapping between two different QB's in a two QB system. Air Force overtakes them as the 3rd best team in the Conference, and BYU stumbles to around 7 wins. Best Case - Jake Heaps becomes the savior he was tagged as when recruited. The youth costs a couple games, but BYU still manages 10 wins and a return trip to Vegas Outlook - Mendenhall will follow Whittingham's lead from last year, starting Nelson at the beginning of the year, and Heaps being the starter by the end of the year. A difficult Non Conference schedule with games against Washington, and At Florida State, will cause problems for the Youth of BYU, causing them to snap their 10 win streak. The nice thing for the Cougars, seeing how much Bronco hates the Vegas bowl, is they'll get their 8th win in probably San Diego, or Fort Worth. Also just like 2009 for Utah was really about 2010 and beyond. For BYU 2010 is also about the future. What next for BYU Now that the WAC option has been removed from BYU, what do the Cougars do next? As it stands right now they cannot return to the MWC. They are stuck in a terrible TV Contract. Only instead of getting 1.25 million per year, Fresno and Nevada are part of the pie so BYU will only get around 800,000 to 900,000 per year. This does not sit well with BYU who already has their own TV station. Not only that, but they have a tremendous broadcasting facility and a state of the art Mobile HD Broadcasting Truck. Part of BYU's independence plan centers on them using BYU TV to work a broadcast deal. As a point of reference, the reason why Texas stayed with the Big 12, was because the conference agreed to let Texas develop it's own tv station, and work out tv contracts with it. BYU is at least 3 years farther along in the process than Texas is. Rumors have it that ESPN is willing to offer 2 to 3 million to BYU to broadcast some of their games as an independent. So they are losing out and 1 to 2 million dollars that they wouldn't have to share. Of course, any ESPN contract, and money is predicated on two things. Ability to Schedule good games, and Ability to stay competitive. Unfortunately those two things don't usually go to together. Although BYU did just recent finalize a deal that they will play a 2 for 1 with Texas starting in 2011, the Big Teams don't like to schedule games against teams like BYU, because BYU could beat them, right Oklahoma. To stay relevant as an Independent BYU would need roughly a top 20 schedule year in and year out. in 2010 BYU will play the 53rd toughest schedule. Not only does BYU need a tougher schedule, but it will have to continue winning 10+ games a year. Otherwise BYU Football will become irrelevant and become the next Army or Navy. Long term, I do not believe BYU can remain viable as an Independent. The Mountain West had been adamant that they weren't willing to work a Texas-like deal with BYU to negotiate their own TV Contract, and instead wanted to force them into the terrible terrible TV Contract with The Mtn. Friday though, word snuck out that Thompson was willing to discuss it. If MWC is unwilling to renegotiate with BYU, BYU's best option for right now is to go independent. They wouldn't be any worse than they currently are in the MWC. Either in the MWC or as An Independent They aren't an AQ Conference. As an Independent they don't have a bowl agreement, but let's be honest, Bowl's will try for BYU because BYU fans travel, and are nationwide. In the MWC they are tied into a terrible TV contract, while as an Independent, they can work out a better Contract that they don't have to share the revenue with 11 teams. Short Term independence is a valid option for BYU. But only with the end goal of getting into another conference. I believe that all of the Independence talk from BYU is looking for 1 of 2 possible outcomes. Ability to renegotiate the MWC TV Contract, or as a way to prove their National Viability, and the Assets of BYU TV for inclusion in the next Big 12 expansion in 3 to 4 years. Texas-Sized Hangover 2. TCU Horned Frogs In last year's Fiesta Bowl Gary Patterson continued a trend of his team choking in big spots. Throughout his career, big victories, and undefeated records have been undone by losses to teams TCU should beat. The question is will their be a hangover from the let down in the Fiesta Bowl? TCU returns QB Andy Dalton, who is the best QB in conference. Dalton has grown into a true leader of the Horned Frogs. The Frogs also return speedster star Jeremy Kerhle. Defense is where TCU has made it's name, and Patterson's philosophy of recruiting athletes, not players is why. Horned Frogs lose DB standout Prince, and All-Time MWC Sack Leader, Jerry Hughes. Linebacker Tank Carder will help the transition, as will the rest of the speedy athletes that TCU has. Worst Case - The hangover starts against ranked Oregon State, removing all chances for BCS hopes. TCU stumbles against BYU and Utah, and ends up third. Best Case - TCU finishes where they left off. Hell freezes over, and they actually get a chance to play for the National Title. Outlook - Weather reports for hell do not have a Cold Front coming. They struggle a bit in the opener before squeaking out a 3 point victory over the Beavers. TCU's only conference loss comes on the road in Rice Eccles Stadium. Lost in the Shuffle I've said before, and I still maintain, that an Automatic Qualifying Mountain West Conference, consisting of Utah, BYU, TCU, Boise State, and Air Force, is better than the Pac-10. However, I also said that Utah made the right choice in accepting the Invitation to the Pac-10. Utah State proves why. If Utah had stayed, there is no guarantee that none of the other teams would have been targeted by the Pac-10, and probably would have bolted. Utah State had just been part of a group that swore fealty to a new Western Athletic Conference that included BYU in non-football sports. To this end the teams agreed to a 5 million dollar penalty to leave the WAC. So when a desperate Craig Thompson game calling with an invite, Utah State turned it down, thinking they had safe reassurances that the WAC would be okay. Instead, Utah State is now in a severely crippled conference, wondering what's next for them. Fully Invited: The MWC Farewell Tour 1. Utah Utes Before Utah can start living life as a Pac-10 member, it has business left with the Mountain West Conference. Utah reloaded in 2009 and hopes it found it's next QB in Sophomore Jordan Wynn. However before it can say goodbye to the MWC, there are some replacements that have to be made. Utah sent 6 players to the NFL in the draft. Defensively they must replace 7 players, including all 3 starting linebackers, both safeties, and a cornerback. The most significant loss could be that of Robert Johnson. RoJo controlled that defensive backfield, and really took pressure off of the CB's who play man to man. To help fill that void Justin Taplin-Ross, who got good playing time last year, will take over Joe Dale's spot at Strong Safety. Brandon Burton, who started playing really well in the second half of last season is back to man one of the Cornerback positions. Upfront the defense will reload with talent. The line will help man what could be one of the best front 7's in not only the conference but the nation. A couple names to watch defensively this year are Brandon Blechen, Dave Kruger, VJ Fehoko, and True Freshman Joe Kruger. Offensively was a year of ups and downs for the Utes. Jordan Wynn is the starter this year, with Terrance Cain to play spot duty, in the Single Wing formation. Where Utah will really excel is at the Running Back position. Matt Asiata was granted an extra year after hurting his knee last year. His replacement Eddie Wide III went for over 1000 yards. The Utes will have a tremendous Inside/Outside duo with Asiata and Wide. It doesn't end there though. Sausain Shaker is the fastest Ute on the team, but he has some injury problems. This could be a problem for him as Tauni Vakapuna (Fui's brother), and Lucky Radley have been turning heads in camp. The Utes could easily go 5 deep at running back, which is quite the change from having to move WR Shaky Smithson to RB, because everyone else was hurt last year. Speaking of Shaky's natural position, Utah is once again looking for a leader at the WR position after David Reed's Sr. Season got him drafted. Jereme Brooks returns, but at 5'9" he's a little undersized to be the main threat at the position. Returning players Luke Matthews, and Shaky, along with Brooks, have solidified their positions as the top 3 WR's. To help with the WR position, the Utes, apparently emoldened by Kendrick Moeai's 2 TD performance in the Poinsettia Bowl, have revived the TE position. While coach Urban Meyer did not recruit TE's. The result left the position all but dead for many years at the U. This year, the Utes have a TE in Moeai who could threaten to be the Best TE in the conference. The Utes are looking to fully implement the TE position, to help the offense. Worst Case - The team gets distracted by the Pac-10 lights, Jordan Wynn fails to continue to improve, leaving the Utes still with a question mark at the QB positions. Non Conference games against Pitt, and at Notre Dame combine with losses Against TCU and BYU makes the Utes limp out of the conference instead of leaving on a high note. Best Case - Wynn continues his development he showed in the last 4 games of 2009. Whittingham uses the motivation that comes from having a Bullseye on their back due to this being their last year. Utah opens the season by making a national splash reliving the 2004 season against Pitt, and then sacks Touchdown Jesus and Notre Dame in November. Those offseason games combined with victories over TCU and BYU gives Utah a triumphant farewell tour and a 3rd BCS invite. Outlook - Wynn should continue his development behind the 1 - 2 punch of Wide and Asiata. Utah says farewell to the conference, with an undefeated conference record and a conference championship. Iowa State, and San Jose state shouldn't be much of an issue, so that means the Pitt Game and the ND game will be the difference between the MWC Champion playing in the Vegas Bowl for the first time since 2007, or the MWC sending a team to the BCS for the 3rd consecutive season, and for possibly their last time. Stay Tuned Starting next week the fun really begins. First up is September 1. This is the deadline for BYU to announce independence in order for it to take effect in the 2011 season. September 2nd is game day. Pittsburgh comes to Rice Eccles Stadium to play the Utes. Then on Saturday at 5 p.m. the Washington Huskies take on the new look Cougars in Provo. 45 minutes later the Oregon State Beavers travel to Jerry World (Dallas Cowboy Stadium) to play TCU. Just when you think that's a great weekend, we'll get a Monday finale of Boise State taking the flag of the little guys to Maryland, to play the Virgina Tech Hokies. That means next week we will begin actually previewing Games. It's going to be a fun opening week. Heck we may even know more about BYU, the WAC and the MWC. Trackbacks
Trackback specific URI for this entry
|
Handy LinksItems of InterestCategoriesBlog AdministrationSyndicate This BlogPowered byTheme dropdownBookmark |