Finally we are getting down to business. Classes have either begun (at Utah), or will begin next week (Down South). Camps are coming to an end, and the teams are starting to get into their typical in-season practice routine. Kickoff is a mere 8-10 days away. Next week begins the break down of actual opponents. No more looking at scrimmage reports and talking about practice.
With the end of fall camps upon us, I present my annual demonstration of exactly how much knowledge I truly lack. This is the week where I step out on a limb and make predictions for the upcoming season. I present two examples of past predictions as evidence of my great prediction prowess.
Last year I predicted that Oregon State would beat either TCU or Boise State. The Beavers responded by going 0-2 in those games, losing to TCU by a score of 21-30, and to Boise State 24-37. The first two of seven loses for Oregon State.
In 2009 I predicted that Oregon and Florida State would both lose in week three to Utah and BYU respectively. Utah lost a close matchup in Autzen, while the Seminoles blasted BYU, and undid any goodwill earned from their week one upset over what turned out to be an average Oklahoma.
Before we get to the predictions, we'll do a breakdown of the season for Utah, BYU, and Utah State, but first, we'll start with some reader participation.
Would You Rather
I have not hid my disdain for BYU's scheduling philosophy so far during their tenure as an Independent, though I do admit that part of the terrible scheduling was due to necessity caused by being so early in the Independence process. Reader, and Cougar Fan, ThRhett has a few times tried to defend BYU's scheduling philosophy. While I think he's wrong, and don't think he fully believes what he says, I give him props for taking up the fight.
Last week ThRhett sent me the following question, that I felt was worth exploring.
Would you rather watch your team lose to Pac-12 teams, or win against teams like New Mexico State and Idaho State?
Setting ThRhett's not so subtle implication aside, it's an interesting question. I believe the heart of the question boils down to exactly what are you looking for in sports. Are you merely in it for self gratification, or do you enjoy the competition.
For a fan who has fully invested themselves into their team, there are few moments as great as accomplishing the goal, whether it be winning a game, completing the upset, or winning the championship. Strangely enough, to me, that thrill of victory isn't nearly as sweet as the anguish of defeat. I fully admit that whenever a team of mine loses, it bothers me. Depending on the situation, the loss lingers for days, months, or sometimes years.
I'm looking at you Adam Vinatieri.
You would think that having my team simply walk through a schedule of patsies, and cup cakes, kind of similar to the back half of BYU's schedule this year, would be the perfect prescription.
Part of what makes Sports so intriguing, so fun to watch, so addictive, is the story that comes from the competition. It's the chance to see what you are made of. You can quantify a lot of things with stats, and measurements, and 40 times, but you'll still be missing the truth of a team or player. If you just line up against a bunch of foes that you are simply stronger, better, and faster than, more often than not, you are cheating sport. Sure you greatly increase your chances of victory, but you rob yourself of finding out exactly who you are. You rob yourself of the chance to grow. You also rob yourself of the chance to know, with a surety, that you, or your team is in fact, the best.
For me, it's the competition that I enjoy the most out of sport. I'd rather see my favorite team, or player match themselves up against the best, and see exactly where they belong, and where they need to grow. I want to see if my team can actually grow from game 1 through game 12. This is something you can only get by challenging yourself.
It's why, as a Utes fan, 2008 ended in a much more gratifying way than 2004. I firmly believe that both those teams could line up and play with any team in the country during those individual seasons. They deserved a shot at the national title. Of course, College Football's post season is an extreme cop out that never leaves us with a true national champion, so we didn't get that shot. But beating up on a powerful, and highly respected Alabama, was way more gratifying than the joke of an opponent the BCS gave us in 2004 with Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl.
I would rather see my favorite teams, struggle, learn, and hopefully grow, against stronger competition, than merely play out the string against opponents that provide little competition. There's an old saying that there is no such thing as a moral victory. Whether you choose to believe that or not, there is such a thing as a hollow one.
Now you know my thoughts, but I'm wondering yours. I was hoping to get ThRhett to write up his opinion, but he couldn't get it done in time, so hopefully he'll leave a comment with his thoughts. I'm interested to hear what everyone else thinks as well. Please leave a comment.
Week By Week
Here are the weekly opponents for Utah, BYU, and Utah State, as well as a brief comment,
as well as my odds of the local team winning.
Week 1
Utah vs Montana St. - Really Utes? A 1-AA team? If you wanted what basically amounts to a scrimmage for week one couldn't you have at least gotten a Sun Belt team or something? And if you are going to play a 1-AA team, at least go with Southern Utah, or Weber State for the in-state rivalry ties.
Chance of Victory: 100%
BYU @ Ole Miss - The Cougars open up against a team from the Big Bad SEC. In reality Ole Miss is a mediocre SEC Team. The Cougars probably are better than the Rebels, but the travel to the Mississippi heat and humidity will play a factor. BYU has had good luck traveling to play mediocre automatic qualifying opponents to open their season in recent history.
Chance of Victory: 60%
Utah State @ Auburn - The Aggies get to be the first opponent of the Tigers' title defense. The Aggies get to be the first win of the Tigers' title defense. The joys of a money game.
Chance of Victory 1% (I'm feeling nice).
Week 2
Utah @ USC - Hours after fellow Pac-12 conference mates Colorado and California play each other in a non conference matchup, the Utes and Trojans will play in the first ever Pac-12 game. All eyes will be on this game as it will be the first test for newly automatic qualifying Utah to prove they can compete. Trojans have yet to really feel the pain of Sanctions, and still have talent, led by QB Matt Barkley. The defense, however, was a question mark for the Men of Troy last season, and will continue to be a bit of a weak link. The Coliseum's 93,000 seat capacity will be one of the largest crowd Utah has had to deal with. Utah does have 2 extra days to prepare, since their week 1 game is on a Thursday, and because their first game is such a weak opponent.
Chance of Victory: 40%
BYU @ Texas - BYU fans touting the upset are quick to point out that Texas is in severe rebuilding mode after failing to even be bowl eligible in 2010. Technically true. Also true is Texas is still Texas. A Texas who beat a revenge seeking Nebraska, in Lincoln, last year. Complacency had taken hold in Austin, and 2010 was just what was needed to shake up Mack Brown. Plus people haven't forgotten about BYU's 2009 upset over Oklahoma in Jerry World, so while BYU is merely a blip on the radar for Texas, it's one they won't look past.
Chance of Victory: 35%
Utah State vs Weber State - The one division 1-A local team that is still okay to schedule games against 1-AA teams, actually does it right by staying in-state.
Chance of Victory: 85%
Week 3
Utah @ BYU - The Holy War returns in a new time slot. Utah looks to repeat after Burton's Block last year, while Cougars hope Chad Bunn being in the replay booth means any questionable replays will go their way. As with any Holy War in years pass, there is a 100% chance if a Utah victory. If you want to be realistic it's actually
50/50.
Utah State on Bye
Week 4
Utah on Bye
BYU vs. Central Florida - The Knights are coming off of an 11 win season and are a dark horse to crash the BCS. If the Knights get past Boston College in week 2, the Cougars could be the last real threat to Central Florida until they match up with East Carolina on November 19th. BYU meanwhile could be trying to salvage a season sitting at 0-3, or they could be having BCS dreams of their own at 3-0. Everything is in play for BYU at this point, and this shoule be a high scoring, and highly entertaining game. The fireworks should fly in this matchup.
Chance of Victory: 65%
Utah State vs. Colorado State - The Rams have been looking for the rebuilding success that Steve Fairchild hinted at with a 7-5 first season, before stumbling through consecutive 3 win seasons. Aggies coming in off of a bye could give them the chance to snag an important second out of conference victory.
Chance of Victory: 45%
Week 5
Utah vs. Washington - The first ever Pac-12 conference game at Rice-Eccles stadium will have fans in a rowdy, raucous frenzy. As a player Steve Sarkisian was 1-1 against the Utes, but 1-0 at Rice-Eccles stadium. The Huskies, will be trying to replace first round draft pick Jake Locker at QB, and will probably rely heavily on RB Chris Polk. The crowd will be amped up and could drive what looks to be a tough Utah defensive line.
Chance of Victory: 80%
Utah State @ BYU - Last year BYU was absolutely humiliated by the Aggies. Simply winning won't be enough for BYU. Whether they are reeling from an 0-4 start, sitting high at 4-0, or somewhere in the middle at 2-2, after last season, this isn't just an ordinary game for BYU. Another upset by Utah State would really make the Aggies season, but the odds are in BYU's favor at about
90/10.
Week 6
Utah vs. Arizona State - Even if USC is better at the end of the season, sanctions prevent them from playing in the Pac-12 Championship game. These are the two teams most frequently picked to be battling for the South crown. This looks like the second most important game, behind USC, on the Utes schedule this season. If you believe divisional implications mean more than historical ones, this could be the most imporant. The Sun Devils have probable Pac-12 defensive player of the year, Vontaze Burflict, except Burflict seems to have anger management issues, and could very well be off the team. The Sun Devils have already been hit by a rash of season ending injuries, and will have to rely on extremely hyped, but unknown 6'8" QB Brock Osweiler. An early October snow storm might just be a welcome sight to Utah fans.
Chance of Victory: 50%
San Jose State vs. BYU - The
WAC Conference turd sandwich buffet portion of the Cougars schedule begins with the Spartans coming to town. The Spartans were so bad last year, that their punter had a kick blocked by an up man's helmet against the Utes last year. Rebuilding would be a generous term for what the Spartans are currently doing.
Chance of Victory: 99%
Wyoming vs. Utah State - The Aggies play their second MWC foe of the year. Wyoming lost the best player they had the past two seasons when QB Austin Carta-Samuels transferred out. Dave Christensen got Wyoming to a bowl two years ago, before coming back to earth last year.
Chance of Victory: 65%
Week 7
Utah @ Pittsburgh - Last year Brian Blechen intercepted Tino Sunseri on the first Pitt play of overtime. It started a downfall that saw Pittsburgh end the season by firing Head Coach Dave Wannestedt. Even while rebuilding, Pitt will be a favorite to win the Big East. Then again, so will everyone else in that conference. Don't underestimate the effect of Utah having to travel across the country so late in the season and playing at Heinz Field.
Chance of Victory: 60%
BYU @ Oregon State - The Beavers are typically the hardest team in the Pac-12 to figure out. They typically start slow, and can come on strong in the second half of the season. Last year, the Beavers were never able to flip the switch, and ended up with a 5-7 record. This year, they will be without super back Jacquizz Rogers, and we're still unsure how effective James Rogers will be coming off of injury.
Chance of Victory: 60%
Utah State @ Fresno State - In Boise State's absense, The Bulldogs will be one of three teams looking to capitalize with a conference championship before joining the Broncos in MWC land.
Chance of Victory: 35%
Week 8
Utah @ California - Utah will now be in the meat of their schedule with an away game at Pittsburgh, followed immediately by an away game at California. They'll also be in the middle of 3 away games in 4 weeks. If there is any worry of the increased competition wearing down the Utes, now is about the time we will see it kick in. California suffered it's first losing season of the Tedford era last year, and the shine may be coming off of them just a bit. However some in Cal are still a bit sore over the Poinsettia Bowl two years ago, and would love to be able to welcome Utah as a Pac-12 opponent by roughing them up a bit. One big problem for Cal is that due to construction on their stadium they all 12 games for them this season are in effect, road games. That can really wear on a team.
Chance of Victory: 55%
BYU vs. Idaho State - Wait. Really BYU? Playing the dregs of Division 1-A wasn't enough? You had to schedule a 1-AA team? Not only that, but you had to schedule a dreg of Division 1-AA? A team coming off of a 1-11 season last year? Southern Utah to scary an opponent for you? At least in 2012 you are playing Weber State, but with your schedule you shouldn't be playing 1-AA teams.
Chance of Victory: 150%
Utah State vs. Louisiana Tech - Louisiana Tech is a WAC team with one foot out the door. A team that badly wants to bolt to Conference USA. If this game were in Louisiana the Bulldogs would be favored, but being in Logan, the Aggies should be the favorite.
Chance of Victory: 55%
Week 9
Utah vs. Oregon State - The Utes have a record of 2-1 in the annual Blackout
Money Grab Game. It started with a thrilling victory over TCU, followed by a boring Halloween night affair against Wyoming. Last year, not only was the Blackout game played during the day, but the Utes sported unbelievably hideous camo abominations as they got abused by TCU. The Blackout Jersey's this season looks better, and this better be a night game. It'll be interesting to see if Oregon State is in there typical late season surge. Either way they'll be a tough opponent. The last time they came to Rice-Eccles, a little Brian Johnson and King Louie magic were needed to pull it out.
Chance of Victory: 60%
BYU @ TCU - TCU destroyed "The Quest" three years ago in what has become an annual thrashing of the Cougars. BYU is hoping that TCU will be vulnerable without the Ginger Ninja Andy Dalton at QB. Nine weeks into the season though, Sophomore Casey Pachall should be comfortable, and the TCU defense will still be fast, and fierce, which was truly the bane for the Cougars the past three years. This game is in Jerry World, the same stadium that BYU helped open up with a victory against Oklahoma.
Chance of Victory: 30%
Utah State on Bye
Week 10
Utah @ Arizona - The Wildcats are getting a lot of hype that I just can't buy into as long as Mike Stoops is their coach. Failed expectations, and self inflicted wounds have been typical of the Wildcats for the past 4-5 years. That said, QB Nick Foles, a worthy candidate to take up the Heisman mantle if Luck stumbles, could test the Utah secondary.
Chance of Victory: 70%
BYU on Bye
Utah State @ Hawaii - The Aggies must make the trip to the islands, a 6 hour plane ride that often throws many teams. The Rainbow Warriors are my pick to take the WAC this year before bolting to the MWC next year.
Chance of Victory: 20%
Week 11
Utah vs. UCLA - This game is full of subplots. Rick Neuheisel will probably be sitting on an extremely hot seat, if he hasn't already been fired. Neuheisel will badly want to beat the Utes because of the turmoil that went down with Norm Chow in the offseason. He'd hate to be paying the opposing team's Offensive Coordinator $500k to beat him. Chow himself is a very proud man, and will want to pull out all the tricks.
Chance of Victory: 75%
BYU vs. Idaho - Idaho won it's first bowl game in a long time two years ago, and made it back to 6 wins last season. Apparently that emboldened their head coach, who felt it necessary to single out and belittle BYU at WAC media days. Without that outburst, Idaho could have been a dark horse upset pick. Now, not so much.
Chance of Victory: 90%
Utah State vs San Jose State - The Spartans should hopefully be closer to finding their identity by this point of the season, but will still be struggling.
Chance of Victory: 75%
Week 12
Utah @ Washington State - The Cougars may look like the dregs of the Pac-12 right now, but they'll be on the rise in 2011. That said, their ceiling is still 6 wins. This game is in Pullman, and at the end of Utah's schedule, so it's a game that Utah must not overlook or they could be caught.
Chance of Victory: 70%
BYU vs. New Mexico State - New Mexico States two victories in 2010 were over New Mexico and San Jose State. By this time BYU fans may just be tired of these games and find it easier to stay home than come to the game.
Chance of Victory: 99%
Utah State @ Idaho - The Vandals are a middle of the pack WAC team. Utah State will have climbed to the middle of the WAC by this point. Both teams will be ready to possibly pounce in 2012 with Hawaii, Fresno State, and Nevada all gone.
Chance of Victory: 45%
Week 13
Utah vs. Colorado - By this time the media will be trying to force feed this as the new rivalry for both teams. They'll probably try to forcea lame name on it, and most suggestions will lack creativity and default to Rocky Mountain something. Personally I vote for the Snow Bowl instead, It plays off of the major ski industries in both states as well as the fact that the only real rivalry between these teams is in Collegiate skiing, where the two teams typically end up 1 and 2 in National Rankings every year. (Colorado unfortunately coming out on top more often than not.) There is also a chance that Denver and Salt Lake will be going after the same
2022 Winter Olympic bid.
BYU on Bye
Utah State vs. Nevada - Wolf Pack lost Colin Kaepernick from last season, so you can expect a return to earth for them. Utah State could be on the way up, and looking pull an upset.
Chance of Victory: 40%
Week 14
Utah and the Pac-12 Championship Game - If Utah wins the South Division they'll be in the Pac-12 championship game. If, however unlikely, they have a better record than Stanford or Oregon, whichever of the two are representing the North, the game will be at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
BYU @ Hawaii - BYU could be playing out the string, with their postseason destination already determined as soon as they suffer their first loss of the season. (Hello Armed Forces Bowl.) It'll be interesting to see whether BYU can stay focused while on the island, or if this turns into another massacre in paradise like the last time the Cougars traveled to the islands.
Chance of Victory: 50%
Utah State @ New Mexico State - The WAC may not have enough bowl bids for Utah State if the Aggies become bowl eligible, but that doesn't mean just accomplishing that feat won't be important for Utah State. They could be sitting at 5 wins at this point and needing a win to become bowl eligible. It's also feasible, with some lucky bounces, they could already be at 6 wins, and a win here gives Utah State a winning season and makes them an even more desirable at-large bowl team.
Chance of Victory: 85%
Worst Team Slogan Ever
This season BYU has lost the title of worst team slogan every. "The Quest" has been replaced by Auburn Head Coach Gene Chizik's slogan "Winning Is Expensive". When public opinion is relatively confident that your Heisman Trophy winning QB who led you to a National Championship only came to your school because you paid his father who was actively shopping his services, and the NCAA is looking into the situation, you may want to think of something other than "Winning Is Expensive". You can claim you are referring to success costing hard work, blood, sweat, and tears, but all anyone thinks is money.
Predictions Around The Country
The first predictions deals with Auburn's ill-timed slogan. A slogan that will become even more ironic before the new National Champion is crowned, when the NCAA announces they have evidence against Cam Newton and send a notice of allegations to Auburn.
There's a reason that MWC teams spend time during fall and spring camp preparing for Air Force and their triple option/cut blocking offense. Boise State Head Coach Chris Petersen doesn't find it necessary, and didn't put any time aside for preparation and will just deal with Air Force come game week. That will change next year, after Air Force Upsets the Broncos
Air Force, off of their upset of Boise will finish no worse than a tie for the MWC Championship.
The Big East will end up with a 4 or 5 way mess of a tie at the top of their standings even though they'll all have two, three or possibly even four losses this season. The BCS will award TCU with the BCS bid that typically goes to Big East champion in 2011, despite not officially joining the Big East until July 1st of 2012.
New Michigan Head Coach Brady Hoke ends the season by giving Ohio State their 6th loss of the year. This will be the first of 4 straight victories for Michigan in the rivalry.
Florida State rides their preseason hype to an upset of #1 Oklahoma in week three. The Seminoles celebrate by dropping three of their next four games and watching Virginia Tech win the ACC.
One loss Georgia plays one loss Alabama in the SEC title game. The winner goes on to the National Championship game, where the SEC does not get it's 6th straight national championship.
Newcomer Nebraska dominates a twelve team B1G Ten conference.
Oregon does not make it through the season undefeated, but the loss does not come against Pac-12 Champion Stanford.
UCLA fires Rick Neuheisel after the Utes beat the Bruins.
The Texas A&M SEC-ede fiasco will not be resolved by the time of the BCS National Championship game, When it finally does get resolved you can count on two things. The Big XII will still exist, and ESPN will have a heavy hand involved in whatever resolution comes to be.
Andrew Luck lives up to the hype, wins the Heisman Trophy, and is the favorite to be the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft. This will leave the Carolina Panthers in an interesting situation as they will once again have the #1 overall pick. The Panthers took Jimmy Clausen in the 2nd round in 2009, and took sCam Newton #1 overall in 2010.
Utes end with two linemen on the Pac-12 All Conference First Team, Tony Bergstrom and Star Lotuleilei.
And my final prediction is that Next week Red, Blue And Pigksin will be breaking down actual games that start that week. (Hey I have to get at least one prediction right.)