Monday, August 16. 2010Red, Blue And Pigskin
Camps are now two weeks old. Utah and BYU have both had their scrimmages. Positions are starting to be sorted out, even If Bronco won't admit it. Honestly though he shouldn't. We have our first official pre-season Top 25, with the usual big boys club hand shaking in tact. Everyone is still dreaming big. BCS Dreams, National Championship dreams are all still fully reachable.
The question is, will they be reached? Did you really expect anything less?
So last week saw the release of the Coaches Top 25. Throughout the offseason the media has told us that Boise State would be in prime position for a National Championship run after last season's BCS Busting 14-0 season. We were told that they'd open at 2 or 3. Anyone who believed it is beyond naive. The BCS will never let a Non-AQ into the Championship game. Boise State started the pre-season ranked 5th. Alabama being ranked higher than Boise is acceptable, they are the defending BCS Championships, even if it is only via injury to Colt McCoy. 2nd was Ohio State. Every year Ohio State gets a lot of publicity. Every year Ohio State disappoints on the national scale. 2010 is no different. 3 is Florida. Florida will be good this year, but they do have to replace Tim Tebow, as well as a number of defensive players. I'm an Urban Meyer supporter, but Boise State is starting the season in a stronger position. Texas was 4th. Texas is losing Colt McCoy. His replacement was terrible in the So as was expected by anyone with a clue, 3 questionable teams, who are part of the Big Boys Club got put ahead of Boise State. This should also make aware, that even if Boise State runs the table and goes undefeated again, they STILL won't play for it all. They'll be jumped, especially as they enter conference play. By the way TCU starts the season ranked 7. If TCU also goes undefeated don't be surprised to see an exact replay of last season. TCU will jump BSU in the polls, and they'll both end up in the rematch of the Best Case/Worst Case for the MWC Truth is not all teams have the same ceiling. What one team would consider to be a Best Case for their season, would be worst case for another. Well unless your are New Mexico, where even your Best Case isn't even a possible worst case for everyone else. So this year's MWC Preview of teams 9-4 will be in a Best Case/Worst Case breakdown. We'll get to the big 3 separately. Here are my projects for teams 9 through 4 in the MWC in 2010. 9. New Mexico Lobos Worst Case - Worst case for the Lobos, is that even more litigation comes against head coach Mike Locksley, The Lobos go winless, and New Mexico gets sick of it and fires him at the end of the year. Best Case - No more new litigation, but New Mexico still only wins 2 games and the University tires of Locksley and fires him. Outlook - Locksley's reign at New Mexico has been nothing but shameful for an institution that is used to competing in the MWC. Rocky Long didn't leave honorably to see the Lobos turned into this. Lobos are in for another rough season, but hopefully the right thing will be done and their coach, who shouldn't have been brought back this season, will be released ASAP. 8. UNLV Rebels Worst Case - Former Montana Coach Bobby Hauck struggles in his transition from FCS to FBS. The Rebels beat only the Lobos, and the bottom of the MWC combines for 1 win the entire year. Best Case - Hauck brings the mentality that made Montana a contender year in and year out to win the FCS Championship. A Championship that is decided by a playoff, by the way. Jr. Omar Clayton continues his progression from the last couple years, and the Rebels sit and wait to see if 6-6 gets them a bowl game. Outlook - With a tough non conference schedule, where the only chances for wins looks to be either at much improved Idaho, or at Hawaii, wins will have to come in conference, which isn't likely. Rebels also have a new coaching staff, and a head coach making a jump from FCS to FBS football. 2010 isn't going to be a good year record wise, but the Rebels are hoping it will be a step forward. 7. Colorado State Rams Worst Case - A Funk that caused the Rams to go winless in Conference play, including being the only win for New Mexico all year, continues. Rams win 3 or 4 games, and Steve Fairchild is let go. Best Case - Fairchild turns it around and no hangover from last year is around. Rams return to improvement shown two years again and get 7 wins and into the Bowls. Outlook - It won't be as bad as last year, but the Rams will miss a bowl game with a 5-7 record. However enough of an improvement is shown that the Rams give Fairchild one last year. 6. Wyoming Cowboys Worst Case - The memories of winning a bowl game last year, fade fast as the Cowboys drop back to earth with a thud. Sophomore QB Austin Carta-Samuels doesn't improve from his solid Freshman campaign. Best Case - Carta-Samuels continues to improve and turn heads. Cowboys return to a bowl game for a second consecutive year. A year that saw them uphold MWC Price and upset Boise State in Laramie. Outlook - Cowboys give Boise State a game, for about a half, much like they did Texas last year. However Carta-Samuels turns into the Best QB nobody cares about because he plays in Laramie, and the Cowboys return to the bowl season. 5. San Diego State Aztecs Worst Case - The Aztecs turn into the Aztecs. They middle to another 4 win season that makes everyone wonder how a team in San Diego isn't any better. Best Case - Ryan Lindley becomes the surprise best QB in the MWC, the Aztecs sneak into the top 4 because either Air Force, or BYU Struggles. Outlook - A team from San Diego should always be competing for a bowl game. This year's version of the squad will finally make one. Lindley improves on his 3000 yards and 23 TD's of a year ago by encroaching on 3500 and 25 TD's. 4. Air Force Falcons Worst Case - Undersized Air Force is wracked by injuries, and barely misses out on a bowl game. Troy Calhoun accepts another job elsewhere after impressing other schools the last 4 years. Best Case - Air Force's tremendous Defense doesn't wear down at the end of the year, and the Falcons replace BYU in the Top 3 of the conference. Win double digit games and finally end Navy's 7 year run as winner of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy winner. More importantly Troy Calhoun stays. Outlook - Two amazing stats for you. First the top 6 runners from 2009 return for the falcons. SIX. S-I-X. Secondly, 100% of all offensive TD scorers from 2009 are returning. This in addition to a defense that was secretly one of the best last year. Falcons will once again make teams hate the week they play. The Big 3 The big 3 will get a better break down next week. And since I wasn't able to get this done last week, by Next week I mean this week. The Rivalry Game Last week did bring some good news to both BYU and Utah. For the first time since Utah accepted the bid to the Pac-10(12), one of the AD's for either school talked in absolutes about continuing the rivalry. Tom Holmoe was asked during a golf tournament about the game and he said, that cooler heads have prevailed, and it will continue. He also went on to say that logistics still need to be worked out. Their have been a couple questions regarding the Rivalry game since the change happened. Some of the questions that have come up are. What does Utah gain by still playing? Why should BYU still bother? Will it still be relevant? When do you play it? So here are my answers. What does Utah gain by still playing? - The common though is, Utah is going to play in an Automatic Qualifying conference, what do they gain by adding one of the best Non-AQ teams onto their schedule every year. If they win, they should have won, if they lose, they lost to a Non-AQ Team. While that's all technically true, the fact that BYU is one of the better Non-AQ teams, and is respected as one of the best Non-AQ teams, will actually help Utah. It will count as a Quality Victory, especially if it comes down to comparing a victory against BYU to a victory against po dunk technical college that some AQ Teams play. Same thing with a loss. A loss to BYU won't look any worse than a victory agaisnt po dunk diddly tech. Why should BYU still bother? - Other than being bitter because Utah was chosen and not them, there is absolutely no reason not to continue the game for BYU right now. Utah is now an AQ team. A victory in the rivalry game now means a victory against an AQ Team. A loss to AQ Utah, is better for BYU than a loss against Non-AQ Utah would be this year. Will it still be relevant? - Absolutely. As long as both teams remain competitive, the rivalry should not lose anything. Rarely in history was the game actually for anything. Conference championships were locked up the week before. Now BYU Will want to beat, and show AQ Utah who is better, while Utah won't want to be losing to Non-AQ BYU. This rivalry won't lose anything by them not being in the same conference. And when BYU joins the Big 12 in a couple years this will be a national game against 2 AQ Teams. When do you play it? - Chances are that neither conference will allow this game to be played during rivalry week. So when should it be played? Worst case scenario would be sometime in the middle of the season. No this game should be moved to the first game of the year. Labor Day weekend. In fact, let's completely re-boot the Rivalry game. The New Rivalry Game It's time to make the Rivalry game a big time national game. So first thing, let's move it to Labor Day weekend, or moreso the first game of the year. This will give fans all summer to get ready, and get pumped for it. Not only that, but Labor Day Weekend doesn't have a lot of compelling matchups for that first week. This game could easily get picked up for national tv. Next Let's embrace the Holy War moniker. As much as it's a bit mis-representative of the rivalry, the rest of the world knows it as The Holy War. It's not any worse of a name for a Rivalry than The World's Largest Cocktail Party (Georgia/Florida), The Red River Rivalry (Texas/Oklahoma), Civil War(Oregon/Oregon State) or even Good Ole Fashioned Hate Georgia/Georgia Tech). Plus it's a lot better than the manufactured Deseret First Duel. For year one, since we're trying to reboot the Rivalry, let's do it by paying homage to the past. Both teams come out in throwback uniforms. The uniforms are then sold at auction with the money given away to charity. The Holy War is one of the best, most intense rivalries in the nation. Sadly not many it's also very regional-ized. Utah is moving to the Pac-10(12) next year. BYU will be in an AQ Conference within 5 years. Let's take the Rivalry and build it up for that national scale. What else could/should these two schools do, to make bring the rivalry to a national scale? Trackbacks
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