Sideshow on :
Give me your thoughts on the proposal. I'm going to submit it to PlayoffPAC.com but want some insight from everyone else first.
Thursday, January 7. 2010Red, Blue, And Pigskin
Bowl season is almost over. All non BCS Bowls are now done, and 4 BCS Bowls have come and gone. The Big 10 showed up big for the first time in a while in the BCS. Ohio State snapped a 6 game losing streak by Beating the Oregon Ducks, and the Iowa Hawkeyes followed that up with a victory over Georgia Tech. Florida absolutely crushed Cincinnati in Tim Tebow's fairwell, and the Boise State Broncos became the second Non-BCS Team to win two BCS Bowls by avenging their loss last year, and beating TCU 17-10. The only thing left is the so-called Championship Game on Thursday that will see the Alabama Crimson Tide versus the Texas Longhorns.
As is typical with the system, the BCS is going to once again fail to answer the question of who the best team is. Of course if you ask them they'll tell you a bunch of lies of why their system is the best. It's just not true, and today we're going to expose some of the BCS Lies, as well as break out the Sideshow Playoffs in it's 3rd iteration. The Regular Season is a defacto playoff.
I'm not sure about other people, but to me a Playoff, is referencing a series of games, where the team who either doesn't lose, or wins a set amount of games, is declared the winner and the eventual champion. So If the regular season is a Playoff, can someone explain to me, how a team can win every one of it's "playoff" games, and still not win, or even get to play for a championship. Especially if other teams that do lose "playoff" games, or lose more "playoff" games does get to play for said championship. Since 2004 There have been 9 teams win every one of their "Regular Season Playoff" games, and not get a chance to play for a National Championship ('04 Utah, Auburn, Boise State, '06 Boise State, '07 Hawaii, '08 Utah, Boise State, '09 TCU, Boise State, Cincinnati). 5 of those teams even made it through the Bowl Season undefeated ('04 Utah, Auburn, '06 Boise State, '08 Utah, '09 Boise State). 3 Times a team that made it through the Regular Season undefeated, watched as one or two of the Participants in the National Championship had 1 or more losses. ('06 12-1 Florida beat 12-0 Ohio State, '07 11-2 LSU Beat 11-1 Ohio State, '08 12-1 Florida Beat 12-1 Texas) Of those 4 times where this happened, only the undefeated '07 Hawaii Team lost their bowl game, but still finished with a better record than eventual Champion LSU, While '06 and '08 saw Undefeated teams watch as a team with 1 loss took the grand prize. So HOW can the Regular Season be a playoff, when teams that win every "playoff" game, aren't the champions? Every game counts At no point is this myth ever correct, but how badly, it is wrong depends upon an institutions status in the world of College Football. Not only does every game not count, but games that do count, do not all count the same. Some games count less depending on the point of the season they are played. Before we go further let's define the current landscape of College Football teams. There are 4 levels. Level 1: The Contenders. This is the cream of the crop. Not only are these teams from BCS Conferences, but these are the powerhouse teams. These are the teams that are expected to contend for the National Championship. These are the teams that are given leeway for a loss or two. These are the teams that have losses count less than other teams. In this group you'll find Florida, Alabama, USC, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio State. Occassionally an Oregon or a Georgia makes the climb, but they don't usually stay at this level very long and typically it's the 7 teams mentioned above. Level 2: The BCS. This is for the rest of the BCS Conference teams, and typically where Notre Dame stands. These are the teams that aren't given the same leeway as the above teams. Win your conference and you are going to a BCS Game. Even if you don't win your conference you can still be an at-large selection. Win your conference with 1 or less loss, and get a few breaks, you may even go to the National Championship game. Level 3: The Busters. This is for those flies in the ointment, the teams that refuse to learn their place. In all honesty it's really just Utah, TCU, Boise State, and BYU, and possibly if the Conference USA Champ were to go undefeated with the right schedule. These are the teams that can't lose if they want to play in a BCS game. National Championship? Forget it, even if you do go undefeated. Level 4: Everyone else. This is for the rest of the MWC, WAC (Even Hawaii who just barely qualified even when it went undefeated), Conference USA, MAC, Sun Belt, Navy and Army. So let's work our way back up the ladder. Level 4: These games stop meaning anything the moment spring practices begin. They have no shot at a BCS Game let alone the National Championship. They are considered inferior teams, and even when they put up a good season it's considered against inferior opponents so they aren't even worth discussing. Level 3: They've made some headlines, and a bit of a pest of themselves lately. They slowly getting some respect, enough so that should they go undefeated they can get the BCS game. But the moment they lose, they're games don't mean anything anymore. Still even if they went undefeated a 1 or 2 loss team will get put in the National Championship ahead of them. Level 2: At the start of the season their games matter, but as the season wears on more and more they just don't get the respect of Level 1. Now if a few breaks happen with the level 1 teams, they may break into that National Championship discussion, but you better not lose more than a game, because even undefeated might not be enough, right Cincinnati? Level 1: Season kicks off and we can just pencil in two of these 7. Not only do these teams games count to start the season, but they count more than any other team, unless it's an early season loss, in which case, it's willing to be overlooked, as long as you win late. But as the season wears on some of the teams are going to count less and less, and they'll stop mattering. So as we've seen every game doesn't count. But not only does every game not count, but the timing of games matters more than the game itself. Just ask the Big 12. In 2008 Texas beat Oklahoma, but then lost to Texas Tech, who then lost to Oklahoma. But since Oklahoma was the first of the teams to lose, they had the more chances to win after their loss, and therefore their victory over Texas Tech late in the season meant more than Texas Tech beating Texas, and Texas beating Oklahoma. The people who like to use this myth, will also falsely tell you that every game in the NFL doesn't count. This year's poster child for this argument is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Some will try to say that the Pittsburgh Steelers last two victories against Green Bay, and Miami were meaningless, because the Indianapolis Colts, and the Cincinnati Bengals rested their players, and allowed the New York Jets to win, which eliminated the Pittsburgh Steelers. The truth is those last two victories did count. And if they were in College Football, they would be the most important games of the season solely because they were played late in the season. However, not only did those games count, but they counted as much as every other game the Steelers played this season, including the 5 games they lost in a row, with 3 of those losses coming to terrible teams (Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland). The Regular Season's importance would be diminished by an actual postseason playoff. Usually when this argument is being made, the person making the argument will follow it up with two co-arguments: 1. March Madness has made College Basketball's regular season worthless. or 2. Teams will have no reason to compete in non-conference games, especially late, and will rest starters. Just look at the NFL. So, in order to debunk the main myth, let's tackle the two mini-myths. March Madness has made College Basketball's regular season worthless. There is some truth to this argument, and that's the fact that College Basketball's regular season, for the most part, is worthless. But the blame isn't at March Madness' fault. The blame lies in two places. First, the regular season is so long. College Basketball's regular season stretches across 5 months. By the time the March Madness tournament winds down, and the final is played in April, it's stretched across 6 months. Add in the preseason buildup, and College Basketball takes roughly half of the year. That's just too much time. College Football doesn't have this issue. It's regular season is 4 months, and from start to end with it's championship game, goes 1 week into a 5th month. Also whereas College Basketball teams play mutliple times in the week, Football as a sport is benefited by it's once per week schedule. Secondly, and this is the big one, the true reason that College Basketball Regular Season's are meaningless is the Conference Tourney's. Now sure some conferences in Football have championship games. But the big difference is that only two teams can play in those games. In Basketball, EVERY team makes the conference tournament. That means a team could Forfeit all of it's regular season games, Make it's conference tournament, win the Conference tournament, and be rewarded with a berth into the postseason. College Football will not have this issue. By it's nature, College Football will require that you are at least somewhat good (relative to your conference) to even be considered. Playoffs, and post seasons in general, must have a level of exclusivity to them, or they lose all meaning. This is where College Basketball fails in regards to it's Conferent Tournaments, not in regards to it's March Madness Tournament. Teams will have no reason to compete in non-conference games, especially late, and will rest starters. Just look at the NFL. NFL teams have no reason to play once they have wrapped up everything possible, in the NFL that's usually a number one seed. Due to the way the NFL works, this is typically done a couple weeks before the season ends. Due to the way that College Football works, this will never be a worry. There are 120 teams in the FBS, which means there will typically always be a large number of teams in the 2-4 loss range. A 16 team playoff will always have it's cutoff in that range. Also since there will always be a lot of teams with similar records at the top of the Nation, some sort of Ranking system will still be needed in order to seed playoff teams. Because of this aspect a College team will always need to put it's best on the line. Otherwise it would face the punishment of the voters if it tried to rest it's players against a non conference team late in the season. Also, most teams schedule their main rivals as the last game of the season. Rivalries are part of what makes College Football so extraordinary. Teams will not want to rest their starters for Rivalries. But let's take a look at what is offered as a possible scenario. Florida and Alabama were both sitting at 11-0, and ranked #1, and #2 with non conference games still ahead of them. They had both wrapped up their position in the SEC Championship. There are some that would argue, that no matter the outcome of the SEC Championship game, the loser of that game would still be in a playoff with a chance at winning the National Championship, therefore what benefit would be gained from going out and trying in their final games. Florida and Alabama played Florida State, and Auburn respectively. Both of these teams were sub par teams. If one of these teams were to rest their players and lose their last game, they would lose ground in the polls, let's say drop to #5, behind most of the other undefeated teams. Now should that same team then go on to lose in the SEC Championship game, depending on the fashion in which they lost that game, a second loss could possibly knock that team out of the top 10, and somewhere in the 12-15 range. Now this team is in danger of not getting a berth into a playoff at all. Also this is the rare case for when two members of a conference are that elite. Most conferences, (especially the ones without a championship) do not have their conference champion determined until the very last week of the season. And when that conference title is the difference between making the playoff, and not, teams will definitely have a reason to continue playing. This also does not take into account the benefit(s) associated with winning your conference, as I will detail later in my proposal. Unlike the NFL, College teams would not be at their best possible spot until the regular season is over. So as you can see, a Playoff would not have a detriment to the regular season, but could in fact help it. College Football has the greatest Regular Season This claim is a little bit arbitrary, but one I would be willing to concede. The problem I have though, is that College Football, may have a great regular season, but it's postseason is always lacking. The Controversy caused by it's annual non-postseason, always tends to taint what happened in the regular season. In a what have you done for me lately world, the last taste left by College Football tends to be a bit sour. The pageantry, The Tradition, The Bowls will Suffer Quick who won this year's Papajohns.com Bowl? The New Mexico Bowl? The R+L Carriers bowl? Bowl games don't mean anything anymore. College Football stopped being about tradition the minute the BCS was created. Since then it has further kicked the rotting corpse of tradition deeper in the ground on multiple occasions. New Year's Day, was the traditional day of College Football. You used to wake up, excited because the best, most elite games were playing on this day. This was they day that College Football crowned it champion. Now the bowl season stretches on for about another week, with many lesser bowls being played on or after New Year's day. Bowl game overload. It's ridiculous that ESPN Refers to the bowl season as Capital One Bowl Week, because it stretches on for way more than a week. This year the first bowl game was played on December 19th. The Championship, and final bowl game will be played on January 7. 19 games, and 34 bowls. There are just too many. Also consider that many of the bowls have recently just changed the conferences who are affiliated with each bowl. There is no tradition here. The Rose Bowl is the only Bowl that even tries to hang onto some semblance of tradition with it's Pac-10 vs. Big-10 matchup on New Years Day. Other ways that College Football has killed tradition, adding a 12th game for money purposes, which means even 6-6 teams make a bowl game, so you no longer have to be a winning team. Also College Football is no longer about Saturday Nights. During the Season a game was played at least once on every single day of the week. Truth is some of the Bowls will suffer, and go away. But that's not a bad thing. The way it is now, the top Bowls are all competed in by teams that are disappointed to be there. Why? Because being in that bowl, means they didn't make it to the Championship game. The teams that are excited to be in a bowl game, the teams that have the great stories with it's bowl game, like SMU making it's first bowl game since the Death Penalty, or Buffalo last year making it's first ever bowl game, or Northwestern trying to snap it's 60 year bowl game losing streak. Those bowl games can and still happen. The only teams happy to be at a bowl game, aren't the level of teams who are going to make the playoffs. Any team who doesn't make the playoffs can still go to a Bowl, and still have all that pageantry. Even the losers of the first round of the playoffs could still go to a Bowl game. The difference is, the fat of too many Bowls will be removed. Bowl game overload will be gone. Sure the Bowl games will still be the appetizer, but at least they'll mean something again to those teams. As it is now, only one Bowl game means anything. One other little discussed part of the bowl season. Most of the participants in the lesser bowls actually lose money on the trip due to travel costs, and unsold tickets. A final proof of my thoughts is the following unsolicited conversation that occurred while writing this article and watching the GMAC Bowl. Wife of Sideshow: I thought College Football would be over by now. Sideshow: Tomorrow. Wife of Sideshow: Is this just another bowl game? Sideshow: Yes. Wife of Sideshow: What Bowl game is it? Sideshow: The GMAC Bowl. Wife of Sideshow: How many Bowl games are there? Sideshow: 34 Wife of Sideshow: Holy Freak! That's too many. You know that kind of ruins the specialness of them. You don't really have to be that good to go. A Playoff tournament will be too hard on the Student Athletes Once again, I find it hard to believe that the NCAA is all that worried about the students missing classes, now that there are Football games being played Sunday through Saturday. As well as some schools start up shortly after the New Year, meaning now that the Bowl Season extends possibly into the second week of January, some students might miss school in the current system. But here's a real question I would like answered. If a playoff system is too difficult for football playing student athletes, why is it that every other level of College Football (FCS, Div II, Div III) has a playoff? Does the NCAA not care about their well being? If a playoff is so wrong, why is it okay for those levels of football, but not for the premier level of football? Truth is most schools are on break during the current Bowl season. So whether it's one bowl game, or the multiple that comes with a playoff, the students wouldn't be losing any extra time away from their studies. The history of Sideshow's Playoffs In 2004 the Utes destroyed BYU to clinch the first ever berth by a non AQ team into a BCS Bowl. Utah was one of 4 teams to finish the regular season undefeated. The cries for a playoff started to really be heard. Most playoff proposals at the time were in favor of a "plus 1" system, or a 4, or 8 team playoff. It was at this time that I unveiled version 1.0 of my playoff proposal. Three years later, College Football became a real jumbled mess, causing a 2 loss team to play for National Championship. It was at this time I dusted off the proposal and thus was born version 2.0. Now, 16 team playoff proposals are quite popular, and the BCS itself has created an anti-playoff website called Playoff Problem. So a perfect way to end this season is with version 3.0. Sideshow's Playoff Proposal 3.0 First things first. We get rid of the 12th game. This game has done nothing to add to the season. All it has really caused it teams to schedule even more unworthy opponents, and it's made it so 6-6 teams are bowl eligible. Also by removing the 12th game, we can setup the scheduling to allow the games to be completed in a timely manner. As for who can make it, the main premise is that all 120 FBS teams deserve a shot. Also I feel there should be a reward for winning a Conference. So the first 11 teams into the playoffs will be the Champions of all 11 Conferences. This now leaves 5 open at-large spots. This is where we can keep the current BCS system, with a few minor tweaks. The major tweak would be that there should be a punishment for scheduling FCS teams. The BCS System, will be used to determine the 5 remaining at-large spots. The 5 highest ranked teams that did not win a conference will be the 5 at-large spots. Next for seeding purposes teams will be ranked according to their rankings in the BCS Standings. Now to determine location. First round games will be played at one the two universities involved in the game. The home team will be determined by Conference Champions getting priority over At-Large teams. If the matchup is between two At-Large teams the Higher Ranked team will get the home game. So for example, if Troy were to win the Sun Belt Conference, and end up with a 13 seed, While Florida had a 4th seed but did not win the SEC, the game would be played at Troy. This provides incentive for teams to win their conference, as well as rewards that team with the extra income provided by the extra home game. This would also create the situation where fans at smaller schools would have a team, that normally would probably never come to that school, at their home stadium. The Playoffs would start immediately following the final regular Season. Since we removed the 12th game, this year that game would have been 11/28. Round 1 would have been 12/5, Round 2 12/12, Round 3 12/18. We would then give teams a week break to prepare for the Championship game, that would be played on New Year's Day. Starting with Round 2, the games could be played at the site of current mid tier bowls, similar to the Liberty Bowl, the Holiday Bowl. Round 3 and The Championship could be set on a rotation of the Current BCS Bowls. 1 year A BCS Bowl would be a championship game, 2 Bowl games would be Final Four games, and 1 BCS game would be a 2nd round game. The Next year the 2nd round game becomes the Championship game, and the rest of the games cycle down. Teams that lost in Round 1, could then be matched up in 4 bowl games to be played later in the month. This makes it so that these mid-tier bowls and even the non championship BCS Bowls now have relevancy once again. So why doesn't this happen. Well let's list some Pros and some Cons. Cons Some scheduling trickery would be required, and fans wouldn't be able to buy their tickets 20 some odd days in advance. Non-playoff bowl games could become less meaningful then they are now. Some first round games will be uneven, until talent spreads out. Every year one of the 4 BCS games is a 2nd round game, but that can't be any worse than Iowa/GT This year, or Cincy/Va. Tech last year. At least this year it would mean something. Pros Every team has a chance at the Championship Talent level will begin to spread out throughout all of College football. Blue chip prospects want to show their stuff on the biggest stages. The biggest stage of course in the National Championship playoffs. It will take awhile, but soon prospects will start weight the option of going to a Top School like a OSU, Michigan, USC, etc. Where they probably won't get to play for 2 years, then they'll be in a conference with plenty of other powerful schools, so there's no guarantee they'll get to the playoffs. Or they'll look at say a Conference USA, or Mountain West team, where just 1 or 2 players of their caliber can make a huge difference in the conference. And they'll play right away. 3 or 4 shots at the tournament is better than just 1 or 2. And after awhile more and more recruits will think that way, and it will roll down to the even lesser confereces like the Sun-Belt. This will also cause less coach jumping in College Football, since an Urban Meyer won't feel the need to go to a powerhouse to have a legitimate chance at a Championship. In fact a coach can become a legend for leading a lower conference team through the tournament. New Year's day Means something again. Money, from advertisements, will go through the roof the first time a Sun-Belt team pulls that major upset. Look at the NCAA Basketball tournaments. It lives off of the Cinderella teams. It will happen in football. Most importantly the championship will be decided on the field, and the teams that play for the championship will be decided on the field. Right now it's based on who a bunch of old coaches, writers, and computers think deserve it. Money will be spread out more. So not only does a playoff system benefit the fans who get to see a real champion crowned, and will get to eventualy see Cinderella rise from the ashes in Football, but the product as a whole will get better. About the only people who this would possibly hurt are those Presidents of the BCS Schools who are barely hanging onto to the BCS guaranteed spots right now (ACC, Big East), and the clearly stuck in the Old Days guys like Trev Alberts and Barry Switzer who foolishly still believe that being in a BCS Conference automatically makes you better than a Non BCS School. So looking at that sytem this would be the Bracket in 2009 (Teams not in the top 25 of the BCS were ranked by number of Wins.) Bracket 1 16 ECU @ 1 Alabama 9 Georgia Tech @ 8 Ohio State 5 Florida @ 12 LSU 13 Penn State @ 4 TCU Bracket 2 15 Troy @ 2 Texas 10 Iowa @ 7 Oregon 11 Virginia Tech @ 6 Boise State 14 Central Michigan @ 3Cincinnati Just look at some of those games. Georgia Tech versus Ohio State. The Buckeyes played Navy who has a similar offense to the Yellow Jackets, and it was a tight close affair. How about Florida versus LSU? Those two teams year in and year out give us a good game. Imagine if it meant something in a playoff. There's a preview of next years Virginia Tech/Boise State game. And imagine the selling point next season when one team tries to get revenge. So let's play it out How would this season's tournament go? Well here's what I believe would happen. I will take into account on the field results from earlier this season, as well as personal opinion. I will also take into account WhatIfSports.com. For each matchup I will run 5 WhatIf matchups to help me form an opinion. Round 1 16 ECU @ 1 Alabama. The Pirates manage to upset a few teams and scared a few others. Playing at Alabama would be too much though. While I don't believe it would be 92-3 like one of the What If simulations, Alabama would "Roll" to next round, 55-10. 9 Georgia Tech @ 8 Ohio State. Early in the season Ohio State survived a scare from a Similar Offense of Navy. This time it's a little easier, but still close. Ohio State 27, Ga. Tech 17. 5 Florida @ 12 LSU. The 2 teams to have split the last 3 Championships face off in an SEC grudge match. Earlier in the season Florida struggled to a 13-3 win in the Bayou. This time around Tebow is a bit more successful as he's not frsh off a concussion. Gators win 25-6. 13 Penn State @ 4 TCU. Joe Pa brings his Nittany Lions to face a fierce Horned Frog Defense. That defense harasses Darryl Clark into 3 interceptions as TCU Scores one for the little guys 34-7. 15 Troy @ 2 Texas. In 2008 Troy outplayed LSU for 3 quarters before blowing it in the 4th. This game is over by the 2nd quarter. Texas steamrolls Troy 63-3. 10 Iowa @ 7 Oregon. Iowa gets QB Ricky Stanzi back from injury. Oregon still has Jeremiah Masoli. Oregon pounds Iowa 55-24. 11 Virginia Tech @ 6 Boise State. We'll get to watch this game for real to start the 2010 season. Some have questioned how good the Broncos really are after playing in the WAC. For this game they show that hey, they are pretty good. Boise State becomes the second Non-AQ to make the 2nd round 36-17. 14 Central Michigan @ 3 Cincinnati. Brian Kelly still left to go coach Notre Dame. CMU Sports the NCAA Record holder for Touchdown passes in Dan "The Fever" LeFevre. An interesting note of this matchup is that to replace Brian Kelly they hired Butch Jones. Jones coached 2009 at Central Michigan. Although the Chippewas would love to show their old coach what he's going to miss, the Bearcats win a very high scoring affair 62-45. Round 2 8 Ohio State vs. 1 Alabama @ the Sugar Bowl. Alabama returns to the site of last year's upset versus Utah. This time two running offense battle in a ground control game. Alabama outlasts Ohio State 27-24. 5 Florida vs. 4 TCU @ The Cotton Bowl. The second round gets us a great matchup that all college football fans wanted for this years Sugar Bowl. Tim Tebow and the spread offense versus a menacing TCU Defense. For this game I'm going to go with What If Sports which had TCU win 3 of the 5 matchups by an average of 17-16. 7 Oregon vs. 2 Texas @ The Vegas Bowl. The Pac-10 champion versus the Big 12 Champion. Masoli gets the Ducks out to a quick start, but that Pac-10 defense eventually gets abused by Colt McCoy and the Long Horn passing attack. Texas becomes the 3rd of our Final Four teams, 44-35. 6 Boise State vs. 3 Cincinnati @ The Liberty Bowl. Once again the Bearcats are involved in a Defenses optional matchup. This time though the Boise State Broncos have the Offense to match. Once again I'm going with What If Sports who has the Broncos winning 3 of the 5 matchus 55-35. Round 3 4 TCU vs. 1 Alabama @ The Orange Bowl. Once again a MWC Defense feasts on the questionable QB Play of the Alabama Crimson Tide. TCU Wins a close affair, but they move to the Championship 31-17. 6 Boise State vs. 2 Texas @ The Fiesta Bowl. Boise State returns to it's Bowl of Magic, but the tricks fall short. Texas sets up a battle to not only determine the best team in Texas, but the best team in the Last. Texas wins 23-20. Championship 4 TCU vs. 2 Texas @ The Rose Bowl. Welcome to the Grandaddy of them all. The question has been asked all year, who is the best team in Texas? Who is the best team in the land. Tonight we find out. For the Results I turn it over to What If Sports who had the following results of the 5 Simulations ran. Sim 1. Texas 33, TCU 23 Sim 2. TCU 14, Texas 0 Sim 3. TCU 30, Texas 16 Sim 4. TCU 10, Texas 6 Sim 5. TCU 31, Texas 13. So there you go. They really are bigger in Texas, at least in 2009 as the TCU Horned Frogs are your National Champions. Trackbacks
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Sideshow on :
Give me your thoughts on the proposal. I'm going to submit it to PlayoffPAC.com but want some insight from everyone else first.
The Mad Giggler on :
I would let WhatIfSports decide all the games. :)
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